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Outlook of Nantong SimOS import and Export Co., Ltd. in 2021
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Under the background of novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic in Global trade, China's foreign trade data show a trend of first suppression and higher growth. In the first 10 months of 2020, the total value of China's import and export of goods trade was 25.95 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.1%. Since the growth rate in the first three quarters turned from negative to positive for the first time, the positive growth trend has been further consolidated, and the import and export of China's top five trading partners such as ASEAN, EU, the United States, Japan and South Korea have all achieved growth.
At the same time, China's economy rebounded from the bottom, the growth rate changed from negative to positive, the international market demand recovered, and the foreign trade orders of some enterprises continued to increase. In addition, the epidemic situation has been well controlled in China, a series of policies and measures to stabilize foreign trade have continued to take effect, and the overall foreign trade situation is positive.
Economic analysts of Xinhua News Agency believe that under the background of global economy's overall recovery and epidemic situation's rebound, China's advantage of giving priority to the recovery of supply chain will continue to be reflected, global demand is expected to tilt to China for a period of time, external demand is expected to be low in 2020, and China's export is expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2021. At the same time, the sustained recovery of China's economy, the effective support for domestic demand, and the continued implementation of the first stage economic and trade agreement between China and the United States will promote the growth of imports. The appreciation of RMB will also increase the willingness of domestic imports and drive imports higher.
1、 The foreign trade situation is positive and the export resilience is unexpected
According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs of the people's Republic of China (GAC), the import and export value of ASEAN and Japan increased by 1.95 trillion yuan in the first five months of 2020.
In the first three quarters, the total value of China's import and export was 6.57 trillion yuan, 7.67 trillion yuan and 8.88 trillion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of - 6.5%, - 0.2% and 7.5% respectively, showing a trend of "substantial decline in the first quarter, stabilization in the second quarter and comprehensive rebound in the third quarter". In October, the total value of import and export reached 2.84 trillion yuan, continuing the growth trend, with a growth rate of 4.6%, but a significant drop compared with 10.0% in September.
（1） Exports grew less than imports for seven consecutive months
In the first 10 months of 2020, China's total export value was 14.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.4% over the same period last year; China's import value was 11.62 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.5%; China's trade surplus was 2.71 trillion yuan, an increase of 16.9%.
Exports showed a strong resilience and showed positive growth for seven consecutive months. 7. In August, the year-on-year growth rate of export volume exceeded 10% continuously, boosting the export growth from negative to positive in the first eight months. In the first three quarters, the total export growth was 1.8%, which exceeded the market expectation. As the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar rose, the growth rate of total export value in RMB in September and October fell to 8.7% and 7.6% compared with July and August, respectively.
In dollar terms, exports from July to October increased by 7.2%, 9.5%, 9.9% and 11.4% year on year, respectively. In September, the growth rate hit an 18 month high, while in October, it hit a new record and achieved double-digit growth, which was unexpected. This is mainly due to the restart of the world economy, the recovery of the global economy and the gradual recovery of foreign demand. At the same time, India and some other emerging countries are affected by the epidemic, and the supply chain is greatly impacted, resulting in a large number of foreign trade orders turning to China, where the epidemic has been effectively controlled and the industrial chain is complete. In addition, the epidemic situation abroad triggered a strong demand for epidemic prevention materials, and the export of masks, medical equipment and drugs increased significantly.
In the first half of the year, the domestic supply chain was not well affected due to the poor performance of domestic demand in the first half of the year. As the domestic economy continues to recover, the cumulative decline in imports has narrowed month by month since May, from 5.2% from January to May to 0.5% from January to October. Especially in September, China's monthly import value hit a record high, reaching 1.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%, making the third quarter achieve a positive growth of 4.3%. Imports fell short of expectations in October, but still grew by 0.9%.
Analysis of foreign trade operation in 2020 and prospects for 2021
（2） Trade with the five major trading partners increased, and imports from the United States rebounded significantly
In the first 10 months of 2020, the total value of China's import and export to the top five trading partners, including ASEAN, EU, the United States, Japan and South Korea, all achieved growth, of which the growth rate to ASEAN, EU and the United States was relatively large.
ASEAN is still China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%, accounting for 14.6% of China's total foreign trade value. Among them, the export to ASEAN was 2.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.3%; the import from ASEAN was 1.68 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.6%.
The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of trade between China and the EU, the second largest trading partner, increased from 14.2% in the first two months to 2.9% in the first nine months. From January to October, it further accelerated to 3.5%, and the total trade value reached 3.62 trillion yuan, accounting for 13.9% of China's total foreign trade value. Among them, the export to EU was 2.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.8%; the import from EU was 1.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.3%.
From January to October, the total value of trade with the third largest trading partner, the United States, was 3.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.9%, accounting for 12.3% of China's total foreign trade value. Among them, exports to the United States reached 2.48 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.6%; imports from the United States reached 725.65 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2%.
Affected by the epidemic situation, the cumulative value of imports from the United States has been growing negatively from March to July, and has turned positive since August, with a trend of accelerating month by month, especially in the past two months. From January to August, China's imports from the United States increased slightly by 0.1%, to 2.8% in September, and further increased to 5.2% in October. In recent two months, China's exports to the United States also turned to a positive range. From January to September, China's exports to the United States increased by 1.8% and accelerated to 3.6% in October.
From January to October, trade with Japan and South Korea, the fourth and fifth largest trading partners, increased. The total value of China Japan trade increased by 1.5% to 1.8 trillion yuan. Among them, the export was 809.17 billion yuan, basically the same as that of the same period last year; the import was 986.7 billion yuan, an increase of 2.7%. The total value of trade between China and South Korea increased by 0.8% to 1.62 trillion yuan. Among them, export was 634.26 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4%; import was 987.44 billion yuan, an increase of 0.4%.
（3） Export growth of mechanical and electrical products turned positive, and epidemic prevention materials fell
Affected by the domestic epidemic, the export of China's mechanical and electrical products showed a double-digit negative growth in the first quarter, resulting in a negative year-on-year growth in the cumulative value of exports in the first half of the year. Since April, China's mechanical and electrical products have been growing for seven consecutive months thanks to the good control of the epidemic situation at home and the gradual improvement of foreign demand. Especially from July to September, the year-on-year growth rate of single month reached double digits, which were 13.7%, 14.1% and 10.5% respectively. In the first 10 months, the cumulative export of mechanical and electrical products was 8.45 trillion yuan, up 3.8%, 6.1 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year, accounting for 59% of the total export value.
Since the outbreak in foreign countries, China has actively organized the export of epidemic prevention materials. From April to September, the export of textiles and medical devices, including masks, increased significantly. In the first three quarters, the export of epidemic prevention materials increased by 2.2 percentage points. The total export volume of textiles, medical devices and drugs reached 1.04 trillion yuan, up 36.5% year on year. With the easing of the epidemic situation abroad and the improvement of production capacity, in October, the export of textiles basically returned to the level before the outbreak of the epidemic in December last year, and the export of medical devices also dropped from the previous few months, but still significantly higher than the level in the first quarter.
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